In view of latest estimations from Analysts, the rapeseed situation in the European Union should primarily depend on foreign imports and especially from origins of the black sea area.

Towards a tight situation?

Strong decrease of the sown area

The drastic decrease in acreage registered first of all in France with difficult sowing and sprouting conditions has led the French ministry to estimate an acreage at around 1.34 Mha and so – 11.7 % compared to the 5 year’s average.

Indeed, the very dry sowings which led to very heterogeneous vegetative development, farmers have been obligated to replant some fields with spring crops and especially barley for which the area is awaited on higher levels for the 2019 harvest.

The Situation is similar for Germany where the last estimation from the Ministry for the 2019 Winter rapeseed area is awaited at 917 Kha and so on the lowest level since 1997. Indeed, two dramatic years in terms of yield and growing conditions have incited farmers to change their crop rotations for grains and spring crops which remained profitable and less subject to yield losses.

Since these two countries are the main historic producers, Agritel is awaiting an overall European production below 20 Mt. In this regard, the EU will have to import a large amount of rapeseed in order to maintain the balancesheet afloat.

Graph showing evolution of the rapeseed area in Germany and France (x1000 ha).

EU Market depends on the UA situation

If we now look at the historic rapeseed imports of the European Union, we can see that Ukraine and Australia were the two main markets that were providing volumes during the 2016/2017 marketing year.  However due to a poor crop last year, Australia hasn’t been able to provide important volumes to the EU this season leaving Ukraine as the main partner.

Since the drought in Australia seems to go on and considering the current situation, the European rapeseed market will highly be influenced by the crop situation and remaining volumes in Ukraine. This situation is allthemore crucial to follow since the Ukrainian rapeseed acreage is awaited on a record level for the next campaign. Furthermore, the end of the ongoing campaign could see a rise In Ukrainian imports while import levels are already on higher than the two previous campaign on week 36.

Share of the 3 main import origins to the EU for the campaign 2016/2017-2017/2018 and 2018/2019 (week 36) (t).

In this context, the end of the current marketing year and especially imports from Ukraine but also the next crop will have to be monitored very closely in order to foresee any price and market changes on the European market.

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